Modeling the Social- Psychological Effects of an Earthquake in Tehran

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

This paper attempt to give a Socio-psychological model for facing a hypothetical earthquake in Tehran. The model advances 4 steps for the disaster: discontent, crowd, riot and plunder. In any step we have tried to imagine by our meta-analysis data to argue about possible social and psychological interactions: shock, fear, distress, hatred, insecurity, depression etc.  The model shows how social fear push the population, and in which ways, to a clash with the security forces. Our analysis continues to foresee the days, months and years after the earthquake. Tehran will be a dead city at least for 2 years and huge immigration have to be organized. The paper finish with concrete suggestion to reinforce the resistance against these negative effects by a social plan of collaboration within the population and authorities. 

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